[Golden Morning News] Trade wars spurred safe-haven gold for the first time in six years for three consecutive quarters

Spot gold has slowed down after two days of sharp declines, and the US market has dropped to a low of $1321.50. However, gold still recorded a gain of nearly 1.5% this quarter, rising for the third consecutive quarter, the first time in 2011.

The US Secretary of Commerce said that the tariff statement for China will be announced soon, and the market is worried about a new situation. At the same time, geopolitical tensions have also boosted market hedging to a certain extent, increasing investor demand for gold.

However, the US dollar index has risen for three consecutive trading days, re-standing above the 90 mark, putting pressure on gold. In addition, as technology stocks rebounded more than 2%, the US stock market closed up on the last trading day of the month.

International spot gold on Thursday (March 29) Asian market opened at 1324.41 US dollars / ounce in early trading, the lowest down 1321.10 US dollars / ounce, the highest rose to 1328.32 US dollars / ounce, closed at 1324 US dollars / ounce, down 0.7 US dollars, a decrease of 0.05 %.

The world's largest gold ETF--SPDR Gold Trust position remained unchanged on Thursday, with a current position of 846.12 tons.

Trade war worries come again, the US Commerce Minister said that the tariff statement for China will be announced soon

US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Bloomberg Television on Thursday morning that US President Trump will soon announce a tariff statement against China aimed at countering intellectual property theft. Ross said that the United States is not trying to coerce China, but to "self-defense."

US Ambassador to China Branstad also said on Thursday that if China restricts US soybean imports, it will hurt Chinese consumers, especially the growing middle class, to counterproductive effects and hurt more than American farmers.

Just as the outside world thought that the trade war risk was easing, US officials’ attitude once again made investors nervous, and the safe-haven asset gold was strongly supported, causing its decline to slow down. Before the two trading days, spot gold It has plunged nearly $30.

At the same time, continued geopolitical tensions have pushed up market hedging to a certain extent, increasing investor demand for gold. Russia launched a revenge campaign to expel 60 US diplomats and ordered the closure of the US consulate in St. Petersburg.

Although the price of gold continued to fall in recent days, it rose for the third consecutive quarter, the first time since 2011; the size of ETF positions is also close to the highest level in five years.

However, the initial jobless claims and PCE data generally improved, which greatly boosted the US dollar. The US dollar index has risen for three consecutive trading days, re-standing above the 90 mark, putting pressure on gold. In addition, as technology stocks rebounded more than 2%, the US stock market closed up on the last trading day of the month.

From a technical point of view, gold once again fell back below the 1330 mark. After hitting the 1320 mark after two consecutive days of plunge, the technical form was destroyed and the price of gold fell below 1320. If the pass breaks, it will further At the gate of 1310, if the two levels are broken, the 1300 mark will be further tested.

On the upside, if the price of gold stabilizes above 1320, it is possible to return to the 1330 line and regain the uptrend. Due to the large decline in gold this week, the market's view of gold is in a split state. According to the survey, it is not more than half of the total.

Bitcoin fell more than %, once fell below the $ 7,000 mark

According to Bittamp data of the trading platform, Bitcoin once fell below the psychological barrier of 7,000 US dollars, and the lowest point in the day was to 6914.5 US dollars.

Jim Iuorio, an analyst at TJM Institutional Services, said: Bitcoin was not born long enough to get its long-term trend line. In other words, the point at which any 50-day moving average intersects the 200-day moving average is a clear warning. Not to mention that bitcoin futures are now available, which means Bitcoin may be more stable at low levels. This is bad news for Bitcoin.

The bulls have the upper hand to rebound

Oil prices rebounded as a result of the stock market's sharp rise and market players weighing the increase in US crude oil inventories and production and the continued export of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

WTI May crude oil futures closed up 0.87% on Thursday, down 1.4% this week, but rose 5.6% in March and rose 7.7% in the first quarter. Brent May crude oil futures closed up 1.06% and fell 0.3% this week. In March, it rose 8.6%, and the first quarter rose 6.3%.

Fundamental positive factors:

1. The final value of the US University of Michigan consumer confidence index released on Thursday (March 29) was 101.4, lower than the previous value of 102 and expected 102; the US March Chicago PMI was 57.4, lower than the previous value of 61.9 and expected 62 .

2. The US March Richmond Fed manufacturing index released on Tuesday (March 27) was 15 lower than the previous value and expectations; the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March was 127.7, lower than the previous value and expectations.

Fundamental negative factors:

1. The number of US jobless claims for the first week of the week announced on Thursday (March 29) was 215,000, a decrease of 12,000 from last week, a record low of 45 years. The lowest level in history was January 27, 1973. 214,000. Previously, the market forecast was between 228 and 223,000. The government also revised last week's data from 229,000 to 227,000. At the same time, the number of new applications for extension of unemployment benefits increased by 35,000 to 187,100 in the week of March 17th, and the average of the four weeks decreased by 12.75 million to 186.15 million.

2. The US core PCE price index for February released on Thursday (March 29) was 1.6%, slightly higher than the previous value. The US personal spending in February only recorded a slight increase for the second consecutive month, indicating the US economy. Growth momentum declined in the first quarter.

Outlook outlook

1. George Gero, managing director of Royal Bank of Canada Wealth Management, also believes that gold will rebound. He said "I think we will start to pay attention to geopolitical events and mid-term elections. There will be talks on tariffs. There will be enough headlines next week to support gold."

2. Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS (Switzerland), a trading company, said most of the decline this week could be attributed to the closing of the month-end and quarter-end positions. He said, "In the event of uncertainty in the geopolitical world, I would not be surprised to see gold picking up again, but continue to be in the same range."

3. Adrian Day, chairman and CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management, also said, “Because of the strength of the US dollar, the recent gold weakness is a response to the improvement in US economic news. We believe that this impact will be short-lived and gold will begin to respond. Weak stock markets, especially US tech stocks. Investors will seek to hedge their stocks, and the best hedge is gold."

Focus on Friday

The holiday of the North American and European multinational securities and futures exchanges was closed for the Easter holiday.

07:30 Japan's unemployment rate in February

14:45 French March CPI monthly rate

(Editor: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)